Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/8/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (ENOK) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/11 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.7S / 64.7E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.5 /W 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 060 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/12 00 UTC: 24.3S/64.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2007/02/12 12 UTC: 25.3S/63.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2007/02/13 00 UTC: 26.6S/61.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2007/02/13 12 UTC: 27.8S/60.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2007/02/14 00 UTC: 30.3S/61.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=1.5 ; CI=2.5 DUE TO A RATHER STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE LLCC IS NOW FULLY EXPOSED, THE REMNANTS OF CONVECTION ARE SHIFTED FAR EAST. "ENOK" KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTHWARDS, ITS ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS AND LESS FAVOURABLE (WIND SHEAR, LOWER SST), IT IS EXPETCED TO BECOME AN EXTRA-TROPICAL DEPRESSION SHORTLY, BEFORE TRACKING TOWARDS THE TRANSIENT TROUGH AT MEDIUM RANGE.