Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/8/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 8 (EX-ENOK) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/11 AT 1800 UTC : 23.4S / 64.6E (TWENTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.0 /W 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/12 06 UTC: 24.5S/64.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2007/02/12 18 UTC: 25.4S/63.5E, MAX WIND=015KT, DISSIPATING. 36H: 2007/02/13 06 UTC: 26.3S/62.6E DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: DUE TO A RATHER STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE LLCC IS NOW FULLY EXPOSED, WEST OF THE VERY RESIDUAL CONVECTION. "ENOK" KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTHWARDS, TOWARDS A LESS AND LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT (INCREASING WIND SHEAR, LOWER SST), AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM, CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.