Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/9/20062007 1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 9 2.A POSITION 2007/02/12 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.3S / 70.0E (TEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1004 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/12 12 UTC: 10.6S/69.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2007/02/13 00 UTC: 11.1S/69.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2007/02/13 12 UTC: 12.0S/69.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2007/02/14 00 UTC: 13.0S/68.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2007/02/14 12 UTC: 14.5S/67.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/02/15 00 UTC: 16.0S/66.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED SINCE 12 HEURES BUT REMAINS INORGANIED. SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT : WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, GOOD MONSOON SURGE, BUT TRADE WINDS NOT REALLY ESTABLISHED. THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY AS THE TRADE WINDS SURGE ESTABLISHES AT MEDIUM RANGE. SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.