Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/9/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9 2.A POSITION 2007/02/12 AT 1200 UTC : 11.7S / 69.6E (ELEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 MOINS /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/13 00 UTC: 12.3S/69.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2007/02/13 12 UTC: 13.1S/68.1E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/02/14 00 UTC: 14.0S/67.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/02/14 12 UTC: 15.4S/66.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/02/15 00 UTC: 17.1S/64.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/02/15 12 UTC: 18.8S/62.3E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED AND STARTS TO ORGANIZE, WITH A RECENT CDO ABOVE THE LLCC. SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A RATHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT : SST OF 29 TO 30°C, WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, BUT MONSOON AND TRADE WINDS SURGES, STILL WEAK TO MODERATE, SHOULD ENHANCE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY, SLOWLY AT THE BEGINNING, AS IT TRACK TOWARDS MASCARENES ISLANDS.