Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/9/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9 2.A POSITION 2007/02/12 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.6S / 69.4E (ELEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/13 06 UTC: 12.1S/68.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2007/02/13 18 UTC: 12.6S/68.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2007/02/14 06 UTC: 13.6S/67.8E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/02/14 18 UTC: 15.2S/66.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/02/15 06 UTC: 17.0S/64.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/02/15 18 UTC: 18.7S/62.3E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE RECENT MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY REVEALS AN ORGANIZING LOWER LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION AND A POORLY CONSOLIDATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A RATHER FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT : SST NEAR 29/30°C, WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ; NEVERTHELESS, THE LOWER LAYER CONVERGENCE IS NOT OPTMUM, BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT SLOW RATE FIRST, AND AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AFTERWARDS AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS THE MASCARENES ISLANDS.