Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/9/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9 2.A POSITION 2007/02/13 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.7S / 69.6E (ELEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/13 12 UTC: 12.1S/68.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2007/02/14 00 UTC: 13.1S/67.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2007/02/14 12 UTC: 14.5S/66.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/02/15 00 UTC: 16.1S/64.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/02/15 12 UTC: 17.5S/62.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/02/16 00 UTC: 18.8S/60.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE ANIMATED IR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL A FLARING AND POORLY CONSOLIDATED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTRE. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A RATHER FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT : SST NEAR 29°C, WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ; NEVERTHELESS, THE LOWER LAYER CONVERGENCE IS NOT OPTMUM, BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT SLOW RATE FIRST, AND AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AFTERWARDS AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS THE MASCARENES ISLANDS.