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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/9/20062007
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9

2.A POSITION 2007/02/13 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.2S / 69.9E
(TWELVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 0.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/02/13 18 UTC: 13.1S/68.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2007/02/14 06 UTC: 14.1S/67.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2007/02/14 18 UTC: 15.4S/65.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2007/02/15 06 UTC: 16.9S/63.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2007/02/15 18 UTC: 18.2S/61.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2007/02/16 06 UTC: 19.2S/60.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=2.0
THE ANIMATED IR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A FLARING AND POORLY CONSOLIDATED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTRE.
LLCC IS VERY APPROXIMATELY LOCATED THANKS TO QUIKSCAT SWAT AND MICROWAVE SSMI F14 AT 0053UTC.
THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A RATHER FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT : SST NEAR 29C, WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ; NEVERTHELESS, THE LOWER LAYER CONVERGENCE IS NOT OPTMUM (MONSOON FLOW ONLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND VERY LIMITED TRADE WIND FLOW) , BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT SLOW RATE FIRST, AND AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AFTERWARDS AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS THE MASCARENES ISLANDS.