Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/9/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9 2.A POSITION 2007/02/13 AT 1800 UTC : 12.8S / 69.0E (TWELVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1001 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/14 06 UTC: 13.7S/68.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2007/02/14 18 UTC: 14.7S/66.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2007/02/15 06 UTC: 16.2S/64.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/02/15 18 UTC: 17.4S/63.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/02/16 06 UTC: 18.8S/61.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/02/16 18 UTC: 20.1S/59.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=2.0+ DEEP CONVECTION IS INTENSIFYING AND COOLING, STARTING TO LIGHTLY ORGANIZE WITH CURVED BANDS BADLY DEFINED EACH SIDES OF THE LLCC, AS IT IS SHOWN ON MICRO-WAVES IMAGERY (SSMIS AT 1520Z, SSMI AT 1510 AND TRMM AT 1432Z), WHICH HAVE BEEN USED FOR THE LOCATION OF THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A RATHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT : SST NEAR 28/29°C, WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, RATHER GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ; NEVERTHELESS, THE LOWER LAYER CONVERGENCE IS NOT OPTIMUM (MONSOON FLOW ONLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND VERY LIMITED TRADE WIND FLOW) , BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT SLOW RATE FIRST, AND AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AFTERWARDS AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS THE MASCARENES ISLANDS. MOST OF THE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE FORECASTED TRACK BUT DISAGREE ABOUT THE FORECASTED INTENSITY. CMRS SCENARIO IS A CONSENSUS RESULT.