Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/9/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9 2.A POSITION 2007/02/14 AT 0000 UTC : 12.8S / 69.0E (TWELVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1001 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/14 12 UTC: 13.6S/68.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2007/02/15 00 UTC: 14.8S/66.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2007/02/15 12 UTC: 16.0S/65.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/02/16 00 UTC: 17.6S/63.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/02/16 12 UTC: 18.9S/61.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/02/17 00 UTC: 20.2S/59.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: CONVECTION IS UNORGANIZED AND FLUCTUATING, POORLY CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE CENTER. WITHOUT ANY RECENT MICRO-WAVES IMAGERY, AND DUE TO THE POOR ORGANISATION OF CONVECTION, LOCATION OF THE LLCC IS NOT SURE. THERE IS A LACK OF INFLOWS IMPULSE IN LOW LEVEL (MONSOON FLOW ONLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND VERY LIMITED TRADE WIND FLOW) , BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. IN HICH LEVEL, CONDITIONS (DIVERGENCE AND VERTICAL WINDSHEAR) ARE NEUTRAL TO RATHER GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT SLOW RATE FIRST, AND AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AFTERWARDS AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS THE MASCARENES ISLANDS. MOST OF THE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE FORECASTED TRACK BUT DISAGREE ABOUT THE FORECASTED INTENSITY. CMRS SCENARIO IS A CONSENSUS RESULT.