Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/9/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9 2.A POSITION 2007/02/14 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9S / 67.4E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 0.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1001 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/14 18 UTC: 16.4S/65.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2007/02/15 06 UTC: 17.8S/64.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/02/15 18 UTC: 19.2S/62.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/02/16 06 UTC: 20.3S/60.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/02/16 18 UTC: 21.1S/59.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/02/17 06 UTC: 21.5S/57.3E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: CONVECTION IS UNORGANIZED AND FLUCTUATING, POORLY CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE CENTER. THERE IS A LACK OF INFLOWS IMPULSE IN LOW LEVEL (MONSOON FLOW ONLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND VERY LIMITED TRADE WIND FLOW) , BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. IN HIGH LEVEL, SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WEAK TO MODERATE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THEN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT SLOW RATE FIRST, AND AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AFTERWARDS AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS THE MASCARENES ISLANDS. MOST OF THE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE FORECASTED TRACK.