Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/9/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9 2.A POSITION 2007/02/14 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.4S / 66.4E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/15 00 UTC: 17.0S/65.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2007/02/15 12 UTC: 18.7S/63.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2007/02/16 00 UTC: 20.1S/61.1E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/02/16 12 UTC: 21.2S/58.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/02/17 00 UTC: 21.9S/57.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/02/17 12 UTC: 22.6S/55.4E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: CONVECTION IS UNORGANIZED AND FLUCTUATING, SEEMS TO REBUILT OVER THE CENTER SINCE LAST HOUR. THERE IS A LACK OF INFLOWS IMPULSE IN LOW LEVEL (MONSOON FLOW ONLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT) , BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN HIGH LEVEL, SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WEAK TO MODERATE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THEN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT SLOW RATE FIRST, AND AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AFTERWARDS AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS THE MASCARENES ISLANDS. MOST OF THE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE FORECASTED TRACK.