Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/9/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 2.A POSITION 2007/02/14 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.4S / 66.1E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 090 SE: 090 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 350 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/15 06 UTC: 16.7S/64.7E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/02/15 18 UTC: 18.0S/63.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/02/16 06 UTC: 19.1S/61.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/02/16 18 UTC: 20.1S/59.8E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/02/17 06 UTC: 21.0S/57.9E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2007/02/17 18 UTC: 21.8S/55.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=2.5- THE CENTER HAS BEEN RELOCATED MORE NORTHERN THANKS TO THE SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGERY AT 1426UTC. METEOSAT7 INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS REBUILDED IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTER WITH A NEW CELL SINCE 1430UTC IN ITS WESTERN PART BEEING ADDED TO THAT IN THE EASTERN ONE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IMPROVE AND THE FORECASTED INTENSIFICATION SEEMS TO BEGIN. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT SLOW RATE FIRST, AND AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AFTERWARDS AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS THE MASCARENES ISLANDS. MOST OF THE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE FORECASTED TRACK.