Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/9/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 2.A POSITION 2007/02/15 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.3S / 65.2E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 996 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 090 SE: 090 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/15 12 UTC: 17.7S/63.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/02/16 00 UTC: 19.0S/61.9E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/02/16 12 UTC: 20.2S/59.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/02/17 00 UTC: 21.2S/57.9E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/02/17 12 UTC: 21.8S/56.4E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2007/02/18 00 UTC: 22.2S/55.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=2.5 SYSTEM KEEPS ON ORGANIZING AND CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE CENTER. METEOSAT7 INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS HOWEVER A VERY FLUCTUATING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH REGULAR BUILDING OF NEW CLUSTERS TAKING PLACE OF OLDER ONES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT SLOW RATE FIRST, AND AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AFTERWARDS AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS THE MASCARENES ISLANDS. MOST OF THE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE FORECASTED TRACK.