Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/9/20062007 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FAVIO) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/15 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.7S / 64.0E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 090 SE: 120 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/15 18 UTC: 19.0S/62.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/02/16 06 UTC: 20.5S/60.7E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/02/16 18 UTC: 21.5S/59.0E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/02/17 06 UTC: 22.4S/57.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/02/17 18 UTC: 23.0S/55.0E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2007/02/18 06 UTC: 23.4S/52.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=2.5+ FAVIO STARTS TO ORAGNIZE AND TO SHOW A CURVED BAND PATTERN ON THE LAST IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AT FIRST THEN MORE QUICKLY AS THE MONSOON FLOW BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED. MOST OF THE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK, ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES ANCHORED IN THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.