Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 17/9/20062007 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FAVIO) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/16 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.1S / 59.8E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 250 SO: 120 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/16 18 UTC: 23.8S/57.7E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/02/17 06 UTC: 25.0S/55.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/02/17 18 UTC: 25.4S/52.7E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/02/18 06 UTC: 25.7S/50.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/02/18 18 UTC: 25.9S/48.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/02/19 06 UTC: 26.1S/47.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.0+ THE CENTER OF "FAVIO" IS SLIGHTLY RELOCATED IN ORDER TO TAKE ACCOUNT OF THE LATEST AVAILABLE DATA. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINED FLUCTUATING NEAR "FAVIO" DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS BUT THE LATEST MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY CONFIRMS A CONSOLIDATING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AROUND THE LLCC. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE THE INNER SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AND TO THE GRADIENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES ANCHORED IN THE SOUTHEAST, STEERING THE SYSTEM. "FAVIO" IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS RATHER QUICKLY.