Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 18/9/20062007 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FAVIO) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/16 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.2S / 58.4E (TWENTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 250 SO: 120 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/17 00 UTC: 24.6S/55.9E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/02/17 12 UTC: 25.6S/53.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/02/18 00 UTC: 26.1S/51.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/02/18 12 UTC: 26.6S/49.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/02/19 00 UTC: 27.0S/47.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/02/19 12 UTC: 26.9S/46.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.0+ THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO "FAVIO" CONSOLIDATED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS, WITH A COMPACT CDO OVER THE LLCC. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE THE INNER SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AND TO THE GRADIENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES ANCHORED IN THE SOUTHEAST. STEERED BY THESE HIGH PRESSURES, "FAVIO" KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS ; THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE (POLEWARD OUTFLOW) IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AS THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER TO THE WESTERLY JET, "FAVIO" IS THUS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY.