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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 19/9/20062007
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FAVIO)

2.A POSITION 2007/02/16 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.9S / 57.5E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 /W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 120 SE: 250 SO: 120 NO: 050

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/02/17 06 UTC: 25.0S/55.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2007/02/17 18 UTC: 25.7S/52.8E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2007/02/18 06 UTC: 26.2S/50.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2007/02/18 18 UTC: 26.5S/48.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2007/02/19 06 UTC: 26.3S/46.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
72H: 2007/02/19 18 UTC: 26.0S/45.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO FAVIO HAS BECOME FLUCTUATING FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS, AND THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT RESIDUAL DEEP CONVECTION IS SOUTHEASTWARDS AWAY FROM THE EXPOSED LLCC (SSMI 16/1425Z, TRMM 16/1500Z, SSMIS 16/1620Z). QUIKSCAT DATA SHOWS AN ASYMMETRICAL SYSTEM WHICH WINDS REACH 40 KT IN THE SOUTH, BUT ONLY 20 KT IN THE NORTH.FAVIO KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES ANCHORED IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN BEYOND 48 HOURS, THANKS TO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, THEN TRACK WESTWARDS AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES REBUILD IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THE MINIMAL STAGE OF STORM THEN WEAKEN BEYOND 48 HOURS.