Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 20/9/20062007 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FAVIO) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/17 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.8S / 56.0E (TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 250 SO: 120 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/17 12 UTC: 25.8S/53.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/02/18 00 UTC: 26.4S/50.8E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/02/18 12 UTC: 26.8S/48.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/02/19 00 UTC: 27.0S/46.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2007/02/19 12 UTC: 26.6S/44.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2007/02/20 00 UTC: 26.1S/43.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO FAVIO IS FLUCTUATING BUT HAS REBUILT NEAR THE CENTRE AS A CURVED BAND PATTERN FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS ON THE IR IMAGERY. THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS SOUTHWESTWARDS AWAY FROM THE EXPOSED LLCC (AMSU NOAA17 16/1855Z, N18 16/2123Z). QUIKSCAT DATA (16/1339Z) SHOWS AN ASYMMETRICAL SYSTEM WHICH WINDS REACH 40 KT IN THE SOUTH, BUT ONLY 20 KT IN THE NORTH. FAVIO KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES ANCHORED IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, THANKS TO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, THEN TRACK WESTWARDS AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES REBUILD IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THE MINIMAL STAGE OF STORM THEN WEAKEN BEYOND 36 HOURS.