Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 21/9/20062007 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FAVIO) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/17 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.4S / 54.5E (TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 250 SO: 140 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/17 18 UTC: 26.1S/52.3E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/02/18 06 UTC: 26.5S/50.0E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/02/18 18 UTC: 27.0S/47.8E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/02/19 06 UTC: 26.9S/45.6E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/02/19 18 UTC: 26.6S/43.6E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/02/20 06 UTC: 25.9S/41.5E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: DEEP CONVECTION IS CLEARLY ORGANIZING AS CURVED BAND AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, MAINLY EXISTING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PART FOR THE MOMENT. FIRST EVIDENCED ON MICRO-WAVES IMLAGERY (AMSUB AT 0101Z, SSMI AT 0252, SSMIS AT 0337Z), WITH CURVED BAND 0.6, THIS ORGANISATION IS NOW ALSO EVIDENCED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY, LEEDING TO T3.0+. FAVIO KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES ANCHORED IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM SHOULD NOT BE INFLUENCED BY THE TWO SUCCESSIVE TROUGHS TRANSITING RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTH, THEN TRACK MORE WESTWARDS AND WESTNORTHWESTWARDS WITH THE REBUILDING HIGH PRESSURES TO THE SOUTHWEST.