Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 22/9/20062007 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FAVIO) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/17 AT 1200 UTC : 25.5S / 53.2E (TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 090 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/18 00 UTC: 26.2S/50.8E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/02/18 12 UTC: 26.5S/48.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/02/19 00 UTC: 26.8S/46.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/02/19 12 UTC: 26.7S/44.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/02/20 00 UTC: 26.0S/42.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/02/20 12 UTC: 25.0S/40.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.0- AND CI=3.0+. DEEP CONVECTION HARDLY CONSOLIDATES ABOVE THE LLCC, AND REMAINS UNDER THE DIURNAL CYCLE INFLUENCE. AFTER HAVING, AS USUAL, WEAKENED DURING THE MID-DAY, DEEP CONVECTION RECENTLY REBUILT ABOVE THE LLCC AS DEVELOPPING CDO. NEVERTHELESS, CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS MORE CIRCULAR AND SYMETRIC AT ALL LEVELS. CONDITIONS ARE NEUTRAL FOR FUTUR INTENSIFICATION : VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS WEAK, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE HAS IMPROVED, WHILE LOW LEVEL INFLOWS REMAINS POOR (NO MONSOON SURGE, AND TRAD WIND SURGE WEAKEND DUE TO THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH). FAVIO SHOULD BE POORLY INFLUENCED BY THE TWO FOLLOWINGS TROUGHS TRANSITING RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTH DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS (WHICH SHOULD CAUSE SLOWER MOTION, AND LESS PRESSURE GRADIENT), THEN PASS SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR, AND CURVE WESTNORTHWESTWARDS OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL WITH THE REBUILDING HIGH PRESSURES TO THE SOUTHWEST. AN INTENSIFICATION SHOULD THEN BE POSSIBLE.