Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 23/9/20062007 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FAVIO) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/17 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.1S / 52.0E (TWENTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 987 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/18 06 UTC: 26.5S/49.5E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/02/18 18 UTC: 26.8S/47.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/02/19 06 UTC: 26.8S/45.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/02/19 18 UTC: 26.5S/43.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/02/20 06 UTC: 25.9S/42.4E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/02/20 18 UTC: 25.2S/41.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.5- THE SATELLITE IMAGERY (GEOSTATIONNARY AND MICRO-WAVE) DEPICTS A SLOW IMPROVING ORGANIZATION OF "FAVIO" WITH A MORE SYMMETRICAL STRUCTURE. NEVERTHELESS, THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HARDLY CONSOLIDATES YET. "FAVIO" IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS, SLOWED DOWN BY 2 SUCCESSIVE TRANSIENT TROUGHS TO THE SOUTH. CURRENTLY THE ENVIRONMENT OF "FAVIO" IS NEUTRAL, BUT BEYOND TAU 24, THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AND A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORSEEN. AT MEDIUM RANGE, AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THE LOWER LAYER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE.