Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 24/9/20062007 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FAVIO) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/18 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.9S / 50.3E (TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 987 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/18 12 UTC: 26.0S/48.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/02/19 00 UTC: 26.5S/46.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/02/19 12 UTC: 26.6S/44.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/02/20 00 UTC: 25.8S/42.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/02/20 12 UTC: 25.2S/40.9E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/02/21 00 UTC: 24.6S/39.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.5- THE GEOSTATIONNARY SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A HARDLY CONSOLIDATING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, BUT MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY REVEALS AN IMPROVING VORTEX, "FAVIO" IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A TRANSIENT RIDGE ; "FAVIO" IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. BEYOND TAU 48, UNDERGOING A BETTER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND AN IMPROVING LOWER LAYER CONFIGURATION OVER THE SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORSEEN.