Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 25/9/20062007 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FAVIO) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/18 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.3S / 49.1E (TWENTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 985 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 100 50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/18 18 UTC: 26.6S/47.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/02/19 06 UTC: 26.7S/44.8E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/02/19 18 UTC: 25.9S/42.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/02/20 06 UTC: 24.9S/39.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/02/20 18 UTC: 24.2S/37.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/02/21 06 UTC: 23.6S/36.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.5 THE INFRARED GEOSTATIONNARY SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A ORGANIZING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, AND WINDSAT 0233UTC AND SSMI F15 AT 0443UTC MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY REVEALS AN IMPROVING VORTEX DESPITE LAST NIGHT QUIKSCAT SWAT DOESN'T SHOW WINDS MORE THAN 40/45KT, STRONGEST WINDS ARE PROBABLY POLLUTED BY THE DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER. "FAVIO" IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BUT INTENSIFICATION SOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL EQUATORWARD INFLOW LINKED TO THE VICINITY OF MALAGASY COASTLINE. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A TRANSIENT RIDGE ; "FAVIO" IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. BEYOND 48 HOURS, UNDERGOING A BETTER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND AN IMPROVING LOWER LAYER CONFIGURATION OVER THE SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORSEEN.