Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 26/9/20062007 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FAVIO) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/18 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.6S / 48.1E (TWENTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 100 50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/19 00 UTC: 26.8S/46.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/02/19 12 UTC: 26.5S/44.3E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/02/20 00 UTC: 25.7S/42.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/02/20 12 UTC: 24.9S/40.7E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/02/21 00 UTC: 24.1S/38.5E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2007/02/21 12 UTC: 23.3S/36.1E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=4.0- FAVIO CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND SHOWS ON METEOSAT SECOND GENERATION HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE CHANNEL A CURVED BAND PATTERN. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARDS THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS SOUTH OF MALAGASY AND TOWARDS THE MOZAMBICAL COASTLINE WITH A FORECASTED LANDFALL DURING THE NIGHT OF WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY. ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THEN SHOULD MARK A STAGE LINKED TO A LACK OF EQUATORWARD INFLOW (MONSOON FLOW WILL BE STOPPED BY MALAGASY ISLAND IN THE NORTH). IT SHOULD FIND BACK GOOD CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBICAL CHANNEL WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS (GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE).