Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 27/9/20062007 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FAVIO) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/18 AT 1800 UTC : 26.7S / 47.4E (TWENTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 MOINS /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 110 50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/19 06 UTC: 26.8S/45.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 24H: 2007/02/19 18 UTC: 26.4S/43.6E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/02/20 06 UTC: 25.5S/41.6E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/02/20 18 UTC: 24.7S/39.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/02/21 06 UTC: 24.0S/37.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2007/02/21 18 UTC: 23.3S/35.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=4.0- FAVIO IS A SMALL SYSTEM, WITH WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION, VERY SYMETRIC AND CONCENTRATED AROUND THE LLCC (WEAK EXTENTION OF NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS, ACCORDING TO QUIKSCAT DATA AT 1428Z, AND OF DEEP CONVECTION ALSO) MICRO-WAVES IMAGERY (TRMM AT 1444Z, WINDSAT AT 1500Z) SHOW A SMALL AND WELL DEFINED EYE IN LOW LEVEL (37GHZ), WITH A NOT COMPLETE AND "INTERRUPTED" EYE WALL IN MID-LEVEL (85GHZ) SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARDS THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS SOUTH OF MALAGASY AND TOWARDS THE MOZAMBICAL COASTLINE WITH A FORECASTED LANDFALL DURING THE NIGHT OF WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY. FAVIO SHOULD REMAINS CLOSE TO ITS ACTUAL INTENSITY DUE TO A POOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE (MONSOON FLOW CUT BY MALAGASY ISLAND IN THE NORTH, WEAKNESS IN SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES IN THE SOUTH) DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER BETTER CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBICAN CHANNEL BEYOND 36 TO 48 HOURS (GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW, WITH BETTER ESTABLISHED TRADE WIND SURGE, AND LIGHT MONSOON SURGE, AND VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, UNDER HIGH LEVEL RIDGE).