Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 28/9/20062007 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FAVIO) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/19 AT 0000 UTC : 26.6S / 46.6E (TWENTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 MOINS /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 970 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 130 SE: 160 SO: 160 NO: 130 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/19 12 UTC: 26.4S/44.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/02/20 00 UTC: 25.8S/42.7E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2007/02/20 12 UTC: 25.1S/40.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2007/02/21 00 UTC: 24.4S/38.9E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2007/02/21 12 UTC: 23.8S/37.0E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2007/02/22 00 UTC: 23.2S/35.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, OVERLAND. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=4.5- FAVIO IS ALSMOST A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS IS A SMALL SYSTEM, WITH WELL DEFINED AND TIGHT CIRCULATION. MICRO-WAVES IMAGERY (SSMIS AT 1735Z, AMSUB AT 1948Z, TRMM AT 2115) SHOW A SMALL AND WELL DEFINED EYE IN LOW LEVEL (37GHZ), WITH A SOLID BUILDIND EYE WALL IN MID LEVEL (85GHZ), ALMOST CLOSED. THIS STRUCTURE ISN'T YET "CLEAR" IN HIGH LEVEL (INFRA-RED). SYSTEM IS TRACKING MORE WESTWARDS. IT SHOULD TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS THE MOZAMBIC (WITH THE STEERING FLOW DIRECTED BY THE REBUILDING HIGH TO THE SOUTHWEST), AND MAKE LANDFALL DURING THE NIGHT OF WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY. IT SHOULD GO ON INTENSIFYING OVER THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBICAN CHANNEL(SST AT 28°C, GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW, WITH BETTER ESTABLISHED TRADE WIND SURGE, AND LIGHT MONSOON SURGE, AND VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, UNDER HIGH LEVEL RIDGE).