Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 29/9/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (FAVIO) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/19 AT 0600 UTC : 26.5S / 46.1E (TWENTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 970 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 080 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 080 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/19 18 UTC: 26.1S/44.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2007/02/20 06 UTC: 25.5S/42.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2007/02/20 18 UTC: 24.9S/40.7E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2007/02/21 06 UTC: 24.2S/39.0E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2007/02/21 18 UTC: 23.5S/37.1E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2007/02/22 06 UTC: 22.1S/34.9E OVERLAND. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=4.5-. THE SYSTEM IS STILL SLOWLY INTENSIFYING. FAVIO HAS REACHED LOW PART OF TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. IT IS A SMALL SYSTEM, WITH A WELL DEFINED AND TIGHT CIRCULATION. RECENT MICRO-WAVES IMAGERY (0428 UTC) SHOWS A TEMPORARY WELL DEFINED EYE IN UPPER LEVEL. IT SHOULD GO ON INTENSIFYING SLOWLY OVER THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBICAN CHANNEL WITH IMPROVING LOW AND UPPER LEVELS CONDITIONS. FAVIO IS GOING TO TRACK MORE WESTWARD TO WEST NORTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF THE REBUILDING RIDGE ON THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CHANNEL. IT SHOULD TRACK WESTNORTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS MOZAMBICAN COASTLINES, WITH A LANDFALL DURING THE NIGHT OF WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY.