Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 30/9/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (FAVIO) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/19 AT 1200 UTC : 26.6S / 45.3E (TWENTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 964 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 70 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 080 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 080 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/20 00 UTC: 26.1S/43.5E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2007/02/20 12 UTC: 25.6S/41.6E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2007/02/21 00 UTC: 25.0S/39.8E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2007/02/21 12 UTC: 24.3S/37.9E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2007/02/22 00 UTC: 23.0S/35.9E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2007/02/22 12 UTC: 21.3S/34.3E OVERLAND. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=4.5+. THE SYSTEM IS STILL SLOWLY INTENSIFYING. FAVIO SHOWS NOW A EYE PATTERN, WITH A WELL CONSILIDATED EYE WALL . IT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IMPROVE (GOOD OUTFLOW POLARWARDS AND EQUATORIALWARDS). FAVIO IS GOING TO TRACK MORE WESTWARD TO WEST NORTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF THE REBUILDING RIDGE ON THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CHANNEL. IT SHOULD TRACK WESTNORTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS MOZAMBICAN COASTLINES, WITH A LANDFALL ON THURSDAY.