Back to the RSMC advisories list
Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47


RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 31/9/20062007
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (FAVIO)

2.A POSITION 2007/02/19 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.4S / 44.7E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 70 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 150 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 150
50 KT NE: 080 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 080

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/02/20 06 UTC: 25.9S/43.0E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H: 2007/02/20 18 UTC: 25.3S/41.0E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2007/02/21 06 UTC: 24.8S/39.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
48H: 2007/02/21 18 UTC: 24.0S/37.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
60H: 2007/02/22 06 UTC: 22.5S/35.9E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
72H: 2007/02/22 18 UTC: 20.3S/34.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, OVERLAND.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.5+.
INTENSIFICATION CONTINUES SLOWLY AND INFRARED METEOSAT7 IMAGERY SHOWS AN EYEWALL COOLING AROUND A WARMING EYE SINCE 1600UTC.
MICROWAVE SSMI F14 IMAGERY REVEALS HOWEVER A LOW LAYER EYE CENTER (37GHZ) SLIGHTLY "TILTED" SOUTHWESTWARDS COMPARED TO THE UPPER LEVEL ONE (85GHZ), WHICH SUPPOSES A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. THIS CONSTRAINT SHOULD DISSAPEAR LINKED TO THE TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS ALREADY STARTED.
FAVIO SHOULD INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IMPROVE (TWO GOOD OUTFLOW CHANNELS POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD AND GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW).
FAVIO IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS (UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF THE REBUILDING RIDGE ON THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CHANNEL) TOWARDS MOZAMBICAN COASTLINE, WITH A FORECASTED LANDFALL ON THURSDAY.