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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 33/9/20062007
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (FAVIO)

2.A POSITION 2007/02/20 AT 0600 UTC :
25.4S / 42.8E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 945 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 150 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 150
50 KT NE: 080 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 080

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/02/20 18 UTC: 25.0S/41.0E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
24H: 2007/02/21 06 UTC: 24.6S/39.0E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2007/02/21 18 UTC: 23.9S/37.3E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
48H: 2007/02/22 06 UTC: 22.6S/36.1E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
60H: 2007/02/22 18 UTC: 20.1S/34.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, OVERLAND.
72H: 2007/02/23 06 UTC: 17.5S/33.0E OVERLAND.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
SYSTEM KEEPS ON INTENSIFYING. METEOSAT7 ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A CIRCULAR DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE EYE. MICROWAVE IMAGERY SSMIS AT 0441Z SHOWS A LESS SYMMETRICAL STRUCTURE WITH A VERY SMALL SIZE EYE (1/10).
FAVIO IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS TOWARDS THE AFRICAN COASTLINE AND THEN, AS A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REBUILDS IN THE SOUTHWEST, TO RECURVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE MOZAMBICAN COASTLINE, WITH A LANDFALL FORECASTED BETWEEN INHAMBANE AND BEIRA ON THURSDAY.