Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 35/9/20062007 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (FAVIO) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/20 AT 1800 UTC : 25.0S / 41.0E (TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.0/6.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 930 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 100 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 080 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 080 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/21 06 UTC: 24.4S/39.0E, MAX WIND=100KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2007/02/21 18 UTC: 23.6S/37.4E, MAX WIND=100KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2007/02/22 06 UTC: 22.4S/36.0E, MAX WIND=100KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2007/02/22 18 UTC: 20.6S/34.7E OVERLAND. 60H: 2007/02/23 06 UTC: 19.2S/33.1E OVERLAND. 72H: 2007/02/23 18 UTC: 17.2S/31.6E OVERLAND. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.5, CI=6.0-. SYSTEM KEEPS ON INTENSIFYING IN A FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. METEOSAT7 ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A CIRCULAR DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE EYE BECOMING COOLER, BUT A NEW BANDING FEATURE IS REBUILDING IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. FAVIO IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS TOWARDS THE AFRICAN COASTLINE AND THEN, AS A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REBUILDS IN THE SOUTHWEST, TO RECURVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE MOZAMBICAN COASTLINE, WITH A LANDFALL FORECASTED BETWEEN VILANKULO AND BEIRA DURING THE NIGHT OF THURSDAY TO FRIDAY.