Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 36/9/20062007 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (FAVIO) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/21 AT 0000 UTC : 24.5S / 39.9E (TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.0/6.0 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 930 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 100 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 080 SE: 080 SO: 100 NO: 080 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/21 12 UTC: 23.8S/38.0E, MAX WIND=100KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2007/02/22 00 UTC: 22.9S/36.4E, MAX WIND=105KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2007/02/22 12 UTC: 21.5S/35.4E, MAX WIND=105KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2007/02/23 00 UTC: 19.4S/33.5E OVERLAND. 60H: 2007/02/23 12 UTC: 18.0S/32.2E OVERLAND. 72H: 2007/02/24 00 UTC: 16.3S/31.9E OVERLAND. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: SYSTEM KEEPS ON INTENSIFYING IN A FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. METEOSAT7 ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A CIRCULAR DEEP CONVECTION AROUND A SMALL EYE WELL DEFINED. FAVIO IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS TOWARDS THE AFRICAN COASTLINE AND THEN, AS A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REBUILDS IN THE SOUTHWEST, TO RECURVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE MOZAMBICAN COASTLINE, WITH A LANDFALL FORECASTED BETWEEN VILANKULO AND BEIRA ON THURSDAY.