Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 37/9/20062007 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (FAVIO) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/21 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.1S / 38.9E (TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/6.0 /W 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 930 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 100 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 110 50 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 080 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/21 18 UTC: 23.3S/37.5E, MAX WIND=090KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2007/02/22 06 UTC: 22.2S/35.9E, MAX WIND=090KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2007/02/22 18 UTC: 20.7S/35.0E, MAX WIND=090KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2007/02/23 06 UTC: 19.2S/33.6E, MAX WIND=050KT , OVERLAND. 60H: 2007/02/23 18 UTC: 17.8S/31.5E, MAX WIND=040KT , OVERLAND. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.0 ; CI=6.0 DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS, THE EYE OF "FAVIO" WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY, BUT THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE SYSTEM REMAINS FAVOURABLE. STEERED BY THE HIGH PRESSURES LOCATED OVER SOUTH-AFRICA, "FAVIO" IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY NORTHWESTWARDS. IT IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE MOZAMBIQUE COASTLINE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS BETWEEN VILANKULO AND BEIRA BEFORE THE LANDFALL.