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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 41/9/20062007
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (FAVIO)

2.A POSITION 2007/02/22 AT 0600 UTC :
22.3S / 35.7E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 935 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 95 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 160 SE: 230 SO: 230 NO: 120
50 KT NE: 080 SE: 080 SO: 100 NO: 080

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/02/22 18 UTC: 20.9S/34.8E, MAX WIND=065KT, OVERLAND.
24H: 2007/02/23 06 UTC: 19.3S/34.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, OVERLAND.


2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=5.5 ET CI=5.5+
EYE HAS REBUILT AND WARMED DURING NIGHT.
DVORAK EIR ANALYSIS AS LEAD TO T5.5+ ON METEOSAT 7 IMAGERY AT 0400Z.
STEERED BY THE HIGH PRESSURES LOCATED OVER SOUTH-AFRICA, FAVIO REGULARLY TRACKS TOWARDS MOZAMBICAN COASTLINE. IT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF VILANCULOS WITHIN THE NEXT HOURS.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND VERY STRONG WINDS MAY AFFECT INHAMBANE AND BEIRA PROVINCES.