Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 42/9/20062007 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (FAVIO) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/22 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.7S / 35.0E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/5.5 /W 1.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 935 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 160 SE: 230 SO: 230 NO: 120 50 KT NE: 080 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 080 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/23 00 UTC: 19.9S/33.7E, MAX WIND=060KT , OVERLAND. 24H: 2007/02/23 12 UTC: 18.0S/32.1E, MAX WIND=040KT , OVERLAND. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.5 ET CI=5.5 FAVIO HAS INTENSIFYED AT THE END OF THE NIGHT APPROACHING MOZAMBIQUE COASTS (CF THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY OF SSMIS 0555Z, REALLY IMPRESSIVE), BUT HAS SHOWED FEW SIGNS OF WEAKENING JUST BEFORE ITS OVERLAND LINKED TO THE LAND PROXIMITY. SYSTEM HAS OVERLANDED NEAR INHASSORO (A LITTLE BIT IN THE NORTH OF VILANCULOS) AFTER IT HAS CROSSED THE BAZURETO ISLAND. ADD TO STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL, THE STORM SURGE AND CYCLONIC SWELL SHOULD MAKE HAVOC IN THE VILANCULOS BAY. ALWAYS STEERED BY THE MID HIGH LEVEL HIGH STATIONNARY OVER THE SOUTH OF AFRICA, FAVIO SHOUD KEEP ON TRACKING NORTHWESTWARDS AND WEAKEN OVERLAND, HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS SHOULD HOWEVER CONCERN THE CITY OF BEIRA DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. DURING ITS TRACK OVERLAND TOWARDS HARARE (ZIMBABWE), FAVIO SHOULD GENERATE HEAVY RAINS OVER SOME AFFLUENTS OF THE ZAMBEZI RIVER AND SHOULD ALSO CAUSE NEW FLOODS ALONG IT AND OVER ITS DELTA.