Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/10/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10 2.A POSITION 2007/02/20 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.8S / 74.8E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/21 00 UTC: 15.2S/73.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2007/02/21 12 UTC: 15.4S/71.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/02/22 00 UTC: 15.6S/68.6E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/02/22 12 UTC: 16.0S/66.0E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/02/23 00 UTC: 16.4S/63.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/02/23 12 UTC: 17.0S/60.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0+ THE SYSTEM IS QUICKLY ORGANIZING. ENVIRONMENT IS FAVOURABLE ; GOOD LOW LEVELS INFLOWS, GOOD UPEER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WEAK WINDSHEAR, BUT CIRCULATION IS BROAD AND INNER CORE STILL LACKS OF ORGANIZATION.