Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/10/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 2.A POSITION 2007/02/20 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.8S / 73.9E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/21 06 UTC: 15.6S/71.7E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2007/02/21 18 UTC: 15.8S/68.9E, MAX WIND=035KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/02/22 06 UTC: 16.0S/66.3E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/02/22 18 UTC: 16.5S/63.8E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/02/23 06 UTC: 17.2S/61.0E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/02/23 18 UTC: 17.4S/59.1E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5-. THE SYSTEM IS QUICKLY ORGANIZING. ENVIRONMENT IS FAVOURABLE ; GOOD LOW LEVELS INFLOWS, GOOD UPEER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WEAK WINDSHEAR. CONVECTION SEEMS TO CONSOLIDATE NEAR THE CENTER SINCE THE VERY LAST HOURS.