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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/10/20062007
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10

2.A POSITION 2007/02/21 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.4S / 72.6E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 030 SE: SO: NO: 030

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/02/21 12 UTC: 14.8S/69.7E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2007/02/22 00 UTC: 15.1S/67.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2007/02/22 12 UTC: 15.4S/64.9E, MAX WIND=045KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2007/02/23 00 UTC: 15.7S/62.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2007/02/23 12 UTC: 16.2S/59.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2007/02/24 00 UTC: 16.7S/56.9E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM IS INTENSIFYING. THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS BEGINING TO ORGANIZE INTO A BROKEN CURVED BAND NEAR THE CENTER WITHIN A QUITE BROAD CIRCULATION.
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVOURABLE ; GOOD LOW LEVELS INFLOWS, GOOD UPEER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WEAK WINDSHEAR. CONVECTION SEEMS TO CONSOLIDATE NEAR THE CENTER SINCE THE VERY LAST HOURS.