Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/10/20062007 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 2.A POSITION 2007/02/21 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2S / 70.8E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 993 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 110 SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/21 18 UTC: 14.4S/69.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/02/22 06 UTC: 14.5S/67.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/02/22 18 UTC: 14.9S/64.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/02/23 06 UTC: 15.2S/62.5E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/02/23 18 UTC: 15.4S/60.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/02/24 06 UTC: 15.6S/58.6E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.0- THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO "GAMEDE" REMAINS SCATTERED WITHIN A BRAD LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION. NEVERTHELESS, THE ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BETTER ORGANIZATION OF THE CURVED BAND PATTERN. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVOURABLE, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY. STEERED BY THE HIGH PRESSURES TO THE SOUTH, "GAMEDE" IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY WESTWARDS.