Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/10/20062007 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GAMEDE) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/21 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9S / 69.5E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 993 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 110 SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/22 00 UTC: 14.0S/66.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/02/22 12 UTC: 14.3S/64.2E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/02/23 00 UTC: 14.4S/61.8E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/02/23 12 UTC: 14.5S/59.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/02/24 00 UTC: 14.8S/57.7E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/02/24 12 UTC: 15.3S/56.0E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.0- "GAMEDE" HAS ORGANIZED WITHIN A BROAD CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION. UNTIL NOW, THIS SYSTEM SHOWS A MONSOON DEPRESSION CONFIGURATION WITH A SCATTERED AND FLARING CONVECTION, EXTENDING RATHER FAR FROM THE CENTRE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVOURABLE AROUND "GAMEDE", WITH A GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPETCED TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY ONCE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS GATHERED NEAR THE CENTRE. STEERED BY THE HIGH PRESSURES TO THE SOUTH, "GAMEDE" IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY WESTWARDS.