Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/10/20062007 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GAMEDE) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/21 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8S / 68.5E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 400 SE: 400 SO: 350 NO: 250 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/22 06 UTC: 13.6S/66.2E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/02/22 18 UTC: 14.1S/63.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/02/23 06 UTC: 14.4S/61.3E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/02/23 18 UTC: 14.6S/58.9E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/02/24 06 UTC: 15.0S/57.0E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2007/02/24 18 UTC: 15.5S/55.5E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.0 THE SYSTEM HAS ORGANIZED WITHIN A BROAD CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION. ON THE LAST MET7 ANIMATED IMAGERY, CONVECTION BUILDS NEAR THE CENTRE AND SHOWS A CURVED BAND PATTERN. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVOURABLE, WITH A GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. STEERED BY THE HIGH PRESSURES TO THE SOUTH, GAMEDE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY WESTWARDS.