Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/10/20062007 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GAMEDE) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/22 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.3S / 65.0E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 400 SE: 500 SO: 400 NO: 300 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/22 18 UTC: 14.7S/62.2E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2007/02/23 06 UTC: 15.4S/59.4E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2007/02/23 18 UTC: 15.9S/57.1E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2007/02/24 06 UTC: 16.3S/55.6E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2007/02/24 18 UTC: 17.0S/54.6E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2007/02/25 06 UTC: 17.8S/54.0E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=4.0- VERY RAPID INTENSIFICATION. AN ALMOST CLOSED EYE HAS FORMED IN MIDLEVEL ON LAST MICRO-WAVES IMAGERY (SSMI AT 0137Z AND 0337Z). THE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS VERY WIDE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVOURABLE, WITH A VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. STEERED BY THE HIGH PRESSURES TO THE SOUTH, GAMEDE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY WESTWARDS.