Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/10/20062007 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GAMEDE) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/22 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.3S / 62.9E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 975 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 400 SE: 500 SO: 400 NO: 300 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/23 06 UTC: 15.5S/61.2E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2007/02/23 18 UTC: 15.8S/59.3E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2007/02/24 06 UTC: 16.3S/57.3E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2007/02/24 18 UTC: 17.0S/55.2E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2007/02/25 06 UTC: 17.4S/54.3E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2007/02/25 18 UTC: 17.9S/53.4E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=4.0+ "GAMEDE" SEEMS TO STABILIZE SLIGHTLY BELOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY : THE LATEST MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY REVEAL THAT THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE CONVECTION AROUD THE WIDE EYE IS NOT EFFECTIVE YET ; AND METEOSAT7 IMAGERY DEPICTS A NON-STABILIZED BANDING EYE STRUCTURE. TAKING ADVANTAGE OF A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT (WITH A PARTICULARLY EFFICIENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW), "GAMEDE" IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY ALONG A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK.