Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/10/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GAMEDE) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/23 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.5S / 62.3E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 968 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 400 SE: 500 SO: 400 NO: 300 50 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/23 12 UTC: 15.9S/60.3E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2007/02/24 00 UTC: 16.3S/58.4E, MAX WIND=075KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2007/02/24 12 UTC: 16.9S/56.3E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2007/02/25 00 UTC: 17.5S/55.0E, MAX WIND=090KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2007/02/25 12 UTC: 17.8S/54.0E, MAX WIND=100KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2007/02/26 00 UTC: 18.4S/52.9E, MAX WIND=100KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=4.5- "GAMEDE" PRESENTS A VERY BROAD BANDING EYE STRUCTURE. IT IS INTENSIFYING VERY GRADUALLY. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS FLUCTUATING. TAKING ADVANTAGE OF A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT (WITH A PARTICULARLY EFFICIENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW), "GAMEDE" IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY ALONG A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK.