Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/10/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GAMEDE) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/23 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1S / 60.6E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 966 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 70 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 400 SE: 400 SO: 400 NO: 300 50 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 120 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/23 18 UTC: 17.1S/58.5E, MAX WIND=075KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2007/02/24 06 UTC: 17.7S/56.7E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2007/02/24 18 UTC: 18.5S/55.1E, MAX WIND=090KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2007/02/25 06 UTC: 19.0S/53.8E, MAX WIND=100KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2007/02/25 18 UTC: 19.1S/52.8E, MAX WIND=100KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2007/02/26 06 UTC: 19.3S/51.8E, MAX WIND=100KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=4.5 "GAMEDE" PRESENTS A VERY BROAD BANDING EYE STRUCTURE. IT IS INTENSIFYING VERY GRADUALLY. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS RATHER FLUCTUATING. TAKING ADVANTAGE OF A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT (WITH A PARTICULARLY EFFICIENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW), "GAMEDE" IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY ALONG A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK.