Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/10/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GAMEDE) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/23 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4S / 59.6E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 958 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 70 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 400 SE: 400 SO: 400 NO: 300 50 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 120 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/24 00 UTC: 17.0S/58.4E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2007/02/24 12 UTC: 17.7S/56.8E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2007/02/25 00 UTC: 18.3S/55.1E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2007/02/25 12 UTC: 18.9S/53.8E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2007/02/26 00 UTC: 19.1S/52.6E, MAX WIND=105KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2007/02/26 12 UTC: 19.4S/51.5E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=4.5+ DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SATELLITE PRESENTATION REMAINS FLUTUATING AND THIS DVORAK ANALYSIS IS AN AVERAGE OF THIS FLUCTUATIONS. "GAMEDE" PRESENTS A VERY BROAD STRUCTURE WITH MSLP PROBABLY LOWER THAN USUALLY WIND-PRESSURE RELATION IN THE SWIO (THIS FACT IS CONFIRMED BY 960 HPA IN ST-BRANDON AT 1100UTC WHEN THE STATION WAS IN THE EYE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT). TAKING ADVANTAGE OF A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT (WITH A PARTICULARLY EFFICIENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW), "GAMEDE" IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY ALONG A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK.