Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/10/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GAMEDE) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/23 AT 1800 UTC : 16.7S / 58.7E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.0 /D 0.5/18 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 956 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 75 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 400 SE: 400 SO: 400 NO: 300 50 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 120 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/24 06 UTC: 17.4S/56.8E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2007/02/24 18 UTC: 17.9S/55.0E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2007/02/25 06 UTC: 18.1S/54.2E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2007/02/25 18 UTC: 18.3S/53.5E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2007/02/26 06 UTC: 18.5S/52.8E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2007/02/26 18 UTC: 18.7S/52.2E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=5.0- "GAMEDE" PRESENTS A VERY BROAD STRUCTURE WITH A PRESSURE GRADIENT LESS STRONG THAN IT SHOULD BE FOR A SMALLER SYSTEM (SO, STRONG WINDS EXTENDS VERY FAR FROM THE CENTER, BUT NEAR THE CENTER, WINDS ARE LESS STRONG THAN THEY WOULD BE FOR SUCH A MINIMAL PRESSURE... THIS FACT HAS BEEN CONFIRMED BY ST-BRANDON DATA, IN THE EYE AT 12UTC, XHERE MSLP WAS AT 957HPA, BUT MAX 10MIN WINDS HASN'T BEEN STRONGER THAN 50KT). MSLP PROBABLY LOWER THAN USUALLY WIND-PRESSURE RELATION IN THE SWIO (THIS FACT IS CONFIRMED BY 960 HPA IN ST-BRANDON AT 1100UTC WHEN THE STATION WAS IN THE EYE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT). TAKING ADVANTAGE OF A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT (WITH A PARTICULARLY EFFICIENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW), "GAMEDE" IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY ALONG A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK. BETWWEEN 48 AND 72 H, NUMERICAL MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ANYMORE, SOME MAKING IT TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS, AND OTHER CURVE SOUTHWARDS.