Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/10/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GAMEDE) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/24 AT 0000 UTC : 17.1S / 58.0E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/5.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 956 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 70 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 400 SE: 450 SO: 450 NO: 300 50 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 120 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/24 12 UTC: 17.4S/56.1E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2007/02/25 00 UTC: 17.5S/54.7E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2007/02/25 12 UTC: 17.6S/53.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2007/02/26 00 UTC: 17.9S/52.9E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2007/02/26 12 UTC: 18.4S/52.7E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2007/02/27 00 UTC: 18.9S/52.6E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.5- AND CI=5.0- THE EYE HAS EMBEDDED DURING LAST HOURS. "GAMEDE" PRESENTS A VERY BROAD STRUCTURE WITH A PRESSURE GRADIENT LESS STRONG THAN IT SHOULD BE FOR A SMALLER SYSTEM (SO, STRONG WINDS EXTENDS VERY FAR FROM THE CENTER, BUT NEAR THE CENTER, WINDS ARE LESS STRONG THAN THEY SHOULD USUALLY BE FOR SUCH A MINIMAL PRESSURE). EXTENTION OF WINDS INDICATED ACCORDING TO QUIKSCAT DATA AT 1352Z. DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, GAMAEDE SHOULD TRACK WEST-SOUTHEWSTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SUBTROPIVAL HIGH. MAIN NUMERICAL MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT AND MAKE IT SLOW DOWN AND CURVE SOUTHWARDS DURING THE NIGHT OF SUNDAY TO MONDAY. FORECAST RSMC TRACK IS A CONSENSUS.