Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/10/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GAMEDE) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/24 AT 0600 UTC : 17.6S / 57.3E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 955 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 75 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 500 SE: 600 SO: 600 NO: 400 50 KT NE: 180 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 180 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1000 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/24 18 UTC: 18.0S/56.0E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2007/02/25 06 UTC: 18.1S/54.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2007/02/25 18 UTC: 18.3S/53.5E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2007/02/26 06 UTC: 18.6S/53.1E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2007/02/26 18 UTC: 18.9S/52.8E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2007/02/27 06 UTC: 19.5S/52.8E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=5.0- "GAMEDE" PRESENTS A VERY BROAD STRUCTURE. EXTENTION OF WINDS INDICATED ACCORDING TO QUIKSCAT DATA AT 0212Z. DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS, GAMAEDE SHOULD TRACK WEST-SOUTHEWSTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SUBTROPIVAL HIGH. MAIN NUMERICAL MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT AND MAKE IT SLOW DOWN AND CURVE SOUTHWARDS DURING THE NIGHT OF SUNDAY TO MONDAY. FORECAST RSMC TRACK IS A CONSENSUS.