Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 17/10/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GAMEDE) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/24 AT 1200 UTC : 18.2S / 56.6E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 945 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 500 SE: 600 SO: 600 NO: 400 50 KT NE: 180 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 180 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1000 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/25 00 UTC: 19.5S/54.9E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2007/02/25 12 UTC: 20.1S/53.8E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2007/02/26 00 UTC: 20.8S/53.0E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2007/02/26 12 UTC: 21.6S/52.7E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2007/02/27 00 UTC: 22.3S/52.4E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2007/02/27 12 UTC: 23.0S/52.2E, MAX WIND=105KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=5.5- "GAMEDE" PRESENTS A VERY BROAD STRUCTURE, WITH IMPORTANT MAXIMUM WINDS EXTENSIONS, WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS VERY FAR FROM THE CENTER. DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS, GAMAEDE SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH, SLOWING DOWN AS THE HIGH PRESSURES REBUILD ON THE CHANNEL, THEN MORE SOUTHWARDS UNDER THE STREERING FLOW OF THE HIGH GEOPOTENTIELS BUILDING IN THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. MAIN NUMERICAL MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT AND MAKE IT SLOW DOWN AND CURVE SOUTHWARDS ON MONDAY.